Thursday, December 28, 2017

Interesting Question

This was on Vox Day's blog  recently.

 Like most empires in decline, Americans don't understand that they are already living in a polity that is well past its peak. They will be lucky if they manage to salvage an American rump state out of it before the 21st century ends.

The question is, what form will the rump state take?

There has been discussions before about the Imperial Presidency but they haven't really meant anything until now.  Barrack Obama was without question the least American President we've ever had.  Born in a state that was absorbed against it's will into the American State and raised by Communists.  Then Indonesian Muslims.  Then the Communists again.  He made some effort to fit in during his freshmen year at college, which is to say that "Barry" was so drugged addled he could barely find his way to class.  Then came his sophomore year walk about through various Muslim countries and Barry became Barrack.   
Obama was Citizen At Birth of the United States who as also an immigrant.*  And a hostile immigrant at that.  Obama didn't get or want to be one us. He was a Marxist who was smart enough to understand that he couldn't get the revolution he wanted.  Or at least not over night.

Even with a super-majority he only got one piece of major legislation through.  After that he gave up on the process and simply ruled as a softshelled dictator. He got away with it because the United States Congress is now permanently deadlocked.

The permanent deadlock is something new although I don't think it will last forever.  It's largely dependent on the Senate Cloture vote.  The Republicans won't do away with it because they are useless old women.  The Democrats eventually will if they ever control both houses as well the White House again.  Old school Democrats wouldn't do away with the sixty member cloture cap because today's opposition is tomorrow's majority and they knew it.  This new breed of Democrat can't foresee the consequences of it's own actions or it would never have filibustered Gorsuch.  If the GOP can hang on to it's majority in the Senate during the 2018 election, President Trump is almost certainly going to be appointing not only Kennedy's replacement but Ginsburg's as well.

But like I said the GOP will never get rid of the cloture which.  Obama was able to rule as a dictator because he stepped into a power vacuum. 

President Trump hasn't quite done the same thing as he has simply been reversing Obama's administrative orders.  The impact feels bigger because the press screams at the top of it's lungs whenever he does this. I have zero doubt that Trump will be re-elected but I have serious doubts about congress beyond the next electoral cycle.  If the Democrats regain both sides of congress Trump will have to govern as one man ruler because he will face uniform resistance to every initiative.

There is considerable political authority that can be derived from tradition and inertia.  Sixteen years of one man rule will create plenty of both.

None the less, due to congress being frozen in place, the presidency has taken major steps towards  rule by dictate simply because nature abhors a power vacuum.

The shape of the future American Rump State is already quite clear.

* Do. Not.  Fuck. Up. My. Comments. With. Birther. Crap. 
That ship has sailed.


Lovekraft said...

I think if one approaches Trump as a builder, things begin to make more sense (as opposed to the career racketeers like Obama who exist only to consolidate more power via regulation, tax theft, race hustling etc).

Trump looks at a building overall condition as a worthy investment. Its foundation is one such consderation. Now take that into the national Presidency and his actions are one who has decided the underlying foundations need to be removed completely before the entire edifice collapses.

What we've seen in the past year is opposition from those who were essentially the rotten foundation. Politics being what it is, Trump unfortunately was tied up with so much lawfare and red tape that simply bringing in the demolition crew wasn't in the cards.

Mr. Bee said...

We probably need something to shake everybody out of their consumerist stupor - possibly the importation of 10 to 20 new islamic "refugees".

Steven Johnson said...

Under Bush, the Congress simply let the President do whatever he wanted overseas, although they did keep him leashed domestically.

But still, you're right -- a generation is growing up who sees an Imperial President as normal, and even the older generations didn't make any effective complaint about Obama's dictatorship.

Which means the stakes in the Presidential elections just went up, again.

Anonymous said...

Even during Imperial Rome there was still a Senate which, in theory, had ultimate authority. In theory. In practise, every senator knew that any senator that crossed Ceasar would be dissapeared.