Monday, October 17, 2016

Can the Polls be Wrong?

Of course they can.  Don't be an idiot.

When the various Soros-bots show up in the comments of AltRight blogs claiming the complete and absolute infallibility of polls there is something they don't mention...because they are stupid and sub-educated and consequently don't know it.

Polls are always based on the previous election.  There are adjustments made to be sure and these adjustments always sound very scientific and there is always a number of very good reason why they are off by X amount.  As well as equally excellent reasons (that they keep in reserve) for why their predictions were drastically off.

It's the later that concerns us.

RCPs aggregation (as of this writing) has Hillary up by 6.4 in a two way race.  That number sounds formidable but is it?

The polls were correct for Romeny/Obama '12 and McCain/Obama '08 but both of those elections had couple of things going for them that the current election does not.

1.  Political stability.  Both of those periods took place in times of political stability.  That is absolutely, definitely, definitively and in all ways not the case this year.  We are in a state of potential rebellion and if you read this blog you know that isn't hyperbole.

 2. Right Wing Political Apathy.  That was very much in play in '08 and even more in play in '12.  Romney could have tried to stoke the middle class uprising known as the Tea Party but he was fundamentally repelled by it.  His attitude was clearly one of, if they vote for me fine but our relationship ends there.

The Right Wing is not apathetic at all this year.

We are on the march

Key Clinton Operative: “It doesn’t matter what the friggin’ legal and ethics people say, we need to win this motherfucker”

The left wing is scared and the right wing is strapping on the bombvests . There is zero enthusiasm for Clinton.  I've seen almost no Hillary/Kaine signs in yards that four years ago were covered with the Obama O sigil.

Get out into the rural areas (which are badly polled by they way) and you will see nothing but Make America Great Again. And those aren't little yard signs either those are big banners on the fences of farmers who never cared about politics before.

Polls are really only accurate in a normal year.

They never predict wave years and I mean never.  They always miss the big shifts.  

And this year is going to be a Presidential wave year.

1 comment:

Jew613 said...

I think Trump will get more votes then Hillary but the Dems are planning massive voting fraud. The rigged polls exist to prepare the population to accept the fraudulent results. The Republican establishment has already announced they will not fight a Hillary victory.

The courts will also act to protect the fix as the last time the Republican party exposed widespread rigging and fraud was in New Jersey in the early eighties and the result was a court decision against the Republican party. Since then no matter how preposterous the results or obvious the theft of the election the Republicans just accept the results.