Monday, August 1, 2016

Post Convention Polls

Hillary 46 Trump 39.  

Which I am not sweating. In the week before the 1980 election it was Reagan 36 / Carter 36.

A post convention bump amongst The Cattle was to be expected.  A few #neverhillary types plodded grumpily back into their milking stalls.  They were never going to be absent for long, this was known from the start.  The Cattle after all, are cattle.

Two obvious things of note.  First, 46% is not 51%  This is not by any stretch of the imagination a genuine lead, it's a modest post convention bump and nothing more.

Second, and drastically more important it is definitely not a cascade preference. There is still 15% of the popular vote out there in play.

Fine we aren't getting the hard core #nevertrumps into the fold and I'm totally cool with that.  The Gamma Male Right can fuck off so far as I'm concerned.

They've had their day and it was nothing but quarter measures, abject failure and complete betrayal when we were listening to them.  They are a comparatively small and insular clique.  They viewed themselves as the skilled Eastern Rider atop the steady Southron/Mid-Western horse.  This was a drastic overestimation of their skills and abilities but then what does one expect from Gamma Males.

Their time is in it's twilight.

The Nationalist right is rising sun.


Jon M said...

Great news. Check out The Conservative Treehouse for some spectacular recent blog posts detailing how much jiggery-pokery is involved in getting those polls to come out 'right'.

Last week they even called the size of the post-DNC bounce to within one percentage point.

Cataline Sergius said...

Given how much these poles are based on the last election cycle a bit of intelligent cynicism is recommended.

This isn't an electoral environment like any other. The old rules just don't apply.