Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Super Tuesday Take Away

Big Winner of Super Tuesday's Republican Primaries guessed it


Hillary now has a lock on her own party's nomination.  She can easily carry her birth state and her state of residence.  The number of presidents who have won the general election but failed to carry both their birth state or their state of residence can be countered on one finger.  James Polk (1845), if you're curious.  Despite a megaton of baggage and terrible fundamentals as a politician, she is now much to my horror and amazement the horse to beat.

If she is facing Trump, the Establishment GOP won't be able to bring themselves to vote for Trump.   Way too much class prejudice there. The mask dropped completely yesterday.

None of the current offerings from the GOP will be able to woo enough of Trump voters onboard, if Trump gets shot down in a brokered convention.  The only candidate I can think of who can bring both wings of the party together is no longer a Republican.

Trump did not have as good a night as I was expecting.  His delegate count is fifty lower than I thought it would be.  Still he remains on track for the nomination but he is not steamrollering the competition.

Cruz is now solidly in the number two slot.  With Carson out he will likely pick up an extra five percent nationally.  Texas was not a surprise to me but Oklahoma was.  I checked.  You have to be a registered Republican to vote in that primary and OK does not do same day registration.  Alaska was also a surprise.  Palin is beginning to appear to be a bit of a malinvestment for Trump.

Rubio did finally win one state but his only hope at this point is A. winning in Florida and B (prime) a brokered convention.  Although under those circumstances he is taking command of a post iceberg Titanic.

I suppose the actual big winner of last night is Kaisch.  You have to win Ohio to become president of the US.  That is not an official rule you understand, it just works out that way.  Kaisch now appears to be in a position to claim that he can do just that.  Although he does need to win his state during the primary.  If does that, he owns the Vice Presidency.  Which at this point is probably his primary objective.

The big question at this point is how long can the Establishment remain blind to the obvious?

The answer is right until after they lose the election.  They are that out of touch.  The thing is the current leadership of the GOP was never meant to be in charge of Jack Shit.  They were just a collection of benchwarmers and caretakers that were the number two men, when the roof caved in back in 2006.

I've said this before but it's worth repeating, it takes a long time for a party to rebuild when it falls from power.  At least fifteen years.  Nobody expects anything from an American Shadow Speaker of House.  Eventually after a prolonged and painful period of reassessment (that is done in private because no one really cares about the internal politics of the opposition party) a new political consensus emerges and they can take a serious run at returning to power. 

Thanks to Obama's over-reach this collection of Jack-legs and ripe-sucks suddenly found themselves holding the gavels.  These men are not giants.  They are midgets on stilts. They are cautious by their nature and are given to trying to find the safest route possible.  They have made no effort to maintain a relationship with the base, other than demanding that the base vote for them.

The base now demands a reason to keep doing so.

And the Establishment doesn't have one.

A Brokered convention is now a dead certainty, for the first time since...(googling now).  I have to admit it fascinates me from a clinical perspective.  I'd thought that those things were dead and that convention delegates were just loyalist day-laborers you threw a bone to.   That convention delegates were just "Hari-Krishnas who drink".  And this year they may have to make the most important decision in a generation.

UPDATE: 3/5/2016

Called it wrong.  Carson's voters have moved over to Kaisch.  Apparently they have a thing from no hopers.



Jew613 said...

Kennedy was the last brokered convention.

Cataline Sergius said...

According to the all knowing Google it was 1976 GOP convention.

Regardless, it will be interesting to see how one of these things is done in the age of social media.

SciVo said...

I don't foresee a brokered convention. Updated analysis:

Nothing interesting will happen today, delegate-wise.

Tomorrow: Just Puerto Rico. Without polling, my best guess is a blowout win for Rubio.

March 8th: Hawaii won't make a difference for anyone. In Mississippi, Trump is on track to get (barely) over half the delegates. In Idaho, the only question in my mind is whether Trump will get all the delegates or just most of them. In Michigan, Trump is bizarrely on track to get half of the delegates; the rules don't make that easy, but there's a 15% threshold and Trump is polling the same as Cruz and Rubio combined.

March 12th: In D.C., I suppose the same could happen as Michigan? I really don't know.

March 15th: So far, Trump is on track to sweep, and North Carolina is the only boring one. The rest are all winner-take-all, and he has a good strong lead in Florida, which will knock Rubio out of the race. His lead in Ohio is small (+5), so Kasich could theoretically grab it and stay in; but there hasn't been polling there since Carson dropped out, and I seriously doubt that Mr. Nice has any upside potential with people that already knew him well.

Beyond: Trump is winning head-to-head polling against Cruz, so if he knocks out both Rubio and Kasich on the 15th, it's all over. He's the nominee.

If Kasich manages to stay in, then Trump will have to work a little harder -- but not much. All six of Kasich's Super Tuesday delegates came from Vermont, because he's been struggling to make the cutoff to get any delegates at all. That effectively turns the winner-take-most states into Trump vs. Cruz, so Trump still wins all or most of the delegates in most of the states, and goes into the convention with a solid majority of the delegates.

I'm an amateur, but I think I have a solid handle on the process, and I've had a pretty good track record with my predictions so far.

SciVo said...

I was wrong about today. Cruz got two more state delegate majorities, now at 3/8. And Louisiana has proven to be a huge fuckup that can't even assign a quarter of its delegates.

Today didn't make much of a difference in the delegate totals. But I was absolutely, completely wrong about it being uninteresting.

SciVo said...

Now I'm not sure about Puerto Rico.

Romney had a blowout win in 2012. So I took that to mean that their Republicans vote as they're told. However, going after Super Tuesday, maybe they just like to vote for winners, in which case Trump.