Sunday, March 6, 2016

Super Saturday Takeaway

Well we all know who lost.

Rubio appears to have collapsed.  The Establishment is now working its way through the stages of grief.  Denial and Anger are over and done with, now it's time for Bargaining.

Rubio's support appears to have split between Cruz and the last Establishment guy standing Kaisch.

I can't believe I'm actually analyzing instead of making fun of Kaisch.  However according to one poll, he is actually leading Trump in Michigan.  It's less of a surprise than you would think.  Television ads still work for older voters, given Michigan's demographics, ad bombing still works in the Wolverine Spartan State.  And Kaisch has been ad bombing the hell out of it. However, that poll is most likely an outlier.   Kaisch is still hoping to muscle his way on to the ticket as the VP.  Rubio maybe fighting him for that position.

The Trump Train clearly lost momentum.  He lost two by a lot and won two by a little. Walking back on immigration during the debate probably wasn't the best idea he'd ever had.  He is now going to have to either spend a lot more of his own money at this point or ignore his followers and start accepting donations.

The upshot of last night was that it is now Cruz saying, that there will be no brokered convention. Apparently Cruz has been reading The Art of the Deal.  Cruz knows perfectly well he would never win a floor fight.

However, Trump's core supporters aren't going anywhere.  And a big chunk of the Establishment can't bring itself to vote for Cruz under any circumstances.  Cruz is the one to benefit the most from the sinking of the USS Rubio but he isn't the sole claimant of that salvage operation.

Cataline's prediction stands; Brokered Convention.

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