Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Michigan Takeaway...Beware the Ides of March

Coming to a Republican Convention this Fall!!!

Trump is back in the lead with three wins and renewed momentum.  The big win in Michigan has been expected for a while.  Trump's demagoguery plays very well in the Rust Belt.  And Michigan is the heart of Reagan-Democrat territory.

Cruz squeaked into second place in the teeth of a massive GOP push for Kaisch.  He also expended very little in the way of his limited resources doing it.

Carly has endorsed Cruz this morning.  A low risk high reward strategy on her part. After all she doesn't owe anyone in the GOP anything.  She doesn't have to work with them and Trump has little use for her.  His token woman is Sarah Palin.  Cruz has little in the way of endorsements, yet he is firmly in second place, currently a mere one hundred delegates behind Trump.  No one is asking him for favors but he can potentially bestow them with a lavish hand.  Not sure what she was offered but it had to be something nice.  Republicans have a blind spot for California but it carries 341 delegates and has a fifty percent trigger (more on that in a moment.)  And Cali is Carly's backyard.

Kaisch had a Rubio-Win by barely coming in behind Cruz for a death grip on third place in Michigan.  He now has a an excuse to hang in until Ohio.  If he wins there look for him to play King Maker at a brokered convention.  Or at least that's his plan.  If he win's Ohio he is a man with options.

Rubio is a man without options.  He is likely going to lose in his home state and that will be a very big nail in his political coffin.  Being the designated Establishment candidate in 2016 is a surer sign of death than any plague spot.  If he quits, his political future is very much in doubt, so he won't quit.  Who knows?  He might get lucky, Trump isn't that young and maybe Cruz really misses Alberta.  However, Rubio's real hope at this point is that if there is a brokered convention he will still be the Establishment's Darling.  Meaning they would have to walk over three other bodies to get his.  Good news there, the Establishment is very, very bad at math.

Trump has an obvious path to the nomination.  The only possible stumbling block will be if he wins both Ohio and Florida.

No, seriously. 

True, if or rather when he wins both he will have 720 delegate and will only need 517 more to secure the nomination. However if Kaisch and Cruz drop out of the race the Anti-Trump vote will have no where else to go but Ted Cruz. And that vote has always been over fifty percent. Trump will get close but he won't get over the 517 delegate barrier.  If the Anti-Trump vote is no longer being divided then Trump will have to get over fifty percent of the vote in both the remaining Proportional-with-a-trigger states.  As well as the winner take all states.  Theoretically, Cruz could win it with the remaining states but more likely he would face a brokered convention.

However this assumes both Rubio and Kaisch quit after the 15th.

The Eides of March foretell the destruction of Caesar.

 But which Caesar?


The Ides of March turned out pretty good for Orange Julius Caesar. -- Iowahawk

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