Saturday, February 20, 2016

South Carolina Takeaway

Trump now has two wins under his belt going into Super Tuesday.  The big question is can he build momentum to get out the 30s.

Rubio appears to have bounced back from his performance as an iPod.

Jeb is out.  The one time princeling and heir presumptive of the GOP is headed into oblivion. RCP average for him is at 5.4  We can expect 100 hundred percent of that to go to Rubio which will bump him up from third to second but not by more than a point.  Jeb has not as yet "swallowed the dog" and endorsed him.

IF Kaisch faces reality Rubio will be competing head to head with Trump.  Leaving Cruz in third place.

Question why should Kaisch face reality?

Florida is the only state in Super Tuesday with a winner take all provision.  Most of the rest are proportional with a winner take all trigger at 51%.  At this time that trigger does not look like it's going to be pulled.

Kaisch could go into the convention with around eight or nine percent of the delegates.  Enough to be a kingmaker if things stay on Track.

Carson will not be doing that at only five percent but that five percent could be life or death to Cruz now.  


SciVo said...

Florida isn't until the 15th. Here's my analysis up through Super Tuesday, with a focus on who will get what state delegate majorities. That's what really matters, since they need at least eight to even be presented as a candidate at the national convention.

Spoiler: I think that Cruz will get a nice fat delegate majority in Texas, while Trump (who got his first in South Carolina) will add Vermont, Georgia, Tennessee, and either Alabama or Massachusetts. With ten other contests (that I haven't analyzed yet) up through the 12th, Trump could theoretically have his eight before even getting to the winner-take-all states (starting on the 15th).

SciVo said...

I analyzed the contests from the 5th to the 12th. Without any polling to work with, just looking at the rules for each state, my best guess is that Trump will get his sixth majority in Idaho, and none of the others will do much of anything for anyone.

Cataline Sergius said...

I included Florida because the voting there has already begun. The Absentee ballots are bigger deal in that state due to the major part time residential population.