Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Nevada Takeaway

Trump has for the first time broken out of the thirties.  In political terms he is now in the realm of the viable. 

Rubio is now consolidating his position as number two man, although he is not yet competitive with Trump.  The Rubio supporters are now beginning to whine incessantly about how Ted Cruz must drop out of the race now for the good of all lifekind in the known universe.

Ted Cruz is starting to look very weak for the long haul.  Although he'd be nuts to drop out.  If he shows up to the convention with twentyfive percent of the delegates in tow and Trump does not have a majority by then.  Cruz will be a man with major options.

Kaisch, is also getting a lot of pressure to pull out from the Establishement.  Depending on how he does on super Tuesday he may do just that. 

Bush has now so far as the Establishment is concerned proven himself to be a small man in a fat man's body by not endorsing Rubio.  They are however about to meet.  Meaning Jeb wants something important.  I suppose we've had worse Sec States.  Hell, we have a worse one right now.

Bush isn’t the only one who is undecided. One person close to New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, Bush’s finance chair, said he wasn’t throwing his support to anyone yet either.

“Let’s face it: No one knows what’s going to happen. There are a lot of hard feelings,” said a Florida House Republican. “We’ll have to wait till the dust settles. Make that, the dirt. Once the dirt settles.”

And there was a lot of it thrown from Bush’s allies. Rubio’s team estimates that of the $34.4 million in negative ads in this race spent against him, $26.9 million – or 78 percent — were funded by the Bush-backing Right to Rise super PAC and Bush's campaign.

Some of the anger at Bush’s sinking fortunes was trained not on Rubio, but on the man who ran Right to Rise, Mike Murphy, the outspoken Hollywood-based political consultant who predicted Bush was the best candidate and once called Trump a “false zombie front-runner.” Since then, Trump has won two early states and Bush never cracked third place, despite a $150 million campaign effort.

Carson.  Oh, this one is kind of sad.  He came from nothing and is in his sixties.  He has spent a lifetime building up his dignatas and autocratus.  And he is about to blow all that in the final leg because Carson has relatives and friends that are now economically dependent upon his continuing to campaign.  In short his campaign is now a scam.  Which is half the reason that he won't quit, the other half is that he is still pissed at Ted Cruz for Iowa and he knows his support would likely drift over to Cruz after he drops out.  Putting Cruz comfortably back into second until Kaisch calls it a day.

Too early to call of course but Trump has the strongest path to the nomination at the moment.

Stay tuned.

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