Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Iowa Takeaway

Trump can shrug this one off and still be in the game as he is likely to win the next two.  His finances will be unaffected by a loss because of course he is completely self-financed.  He would have preferred to have knocked Cruz off early and concentrated everything on Rubio.  As it is he will be dividing his fire until Super-Tuesday.  However, his new method of politics underperformed.  Trump had no ward captains, largely because he never dreamed he was going to catch fire in the first place so he had nothing set up.  Consequently, he banked on his star power, mega-rallys and Twitter.  It did work to a degree but obviously didn't deliver.  A lot of his "new voters"  didn't show up.

Cruz won credibility as an electable candidate.  If he had lost last night, he would be struggling to make his case as someone can actually win the general election.  He doesn't have a chance of winning the next two but that doesn't matter as much at this point..  He can survive certain defeats in New Hampshire and South Carolina at the hands of Trump.  The all or nothing for Cruz is Super-Tuesday with it's large share of winner take all stakes.  And by then it will be down to a three horse race if Carson sees the light and calls it a day after South Carolina.

Rubio also won a lot of credibility.  He did much better than the polls predicted.  Which means that the undecideds broke for him at the last minute.   Because a huge chunk of the Republican base sill automatically goes for the low risk candidate, which Rubio most certainly is. Expect him to start building momentum on the basis of this "symbolic win," as the other Establishment Republicans drop out.

Jeb Bush...

...moving right along.

The big undecided remains Ben Carson.  When he drops out where will his followers go?

On the Democrat side of the house things have now gotten interesting...for the Republicans.  They now know that whoever they face in November will be a fundamentally unelectable candidate.  It really doesn't matter how much water the press carries for their anointed one this time.  Barring a split in the party, the GOP's candidate will be moving into 1600 Penn Ave on January 20th 2017.

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