Thursday, April 9, 2015

Sad Puppies IV: The Enpuppying

What does the future hold for Sad Puppies IV and beyond.

  Let us wargame it a little.

Their actions next year are heavily dependent upon the results of this years Hugos.

Scenario 1. No Award succeeds in all categories.

Before Larry backed out, we appear to have held four of the five best best novel slots.  Not a bad metric for judging our impact. Which in terms of raw votes was considerable.  This is also the category everybody votes in.

They will need to bring in outside help and will feel justified in doing so because the Sad Puppies clearly and obvious recruited the GamerGators.  That means real money will have to be spent and in the case of SJWs, that always mean someone else’s money.  That assumes a major OUTSIDE SJW player will get involved.

Result: The SJWs dance around in the endzone for a bit until someone explains to them you don't do that when you've been tackled for a safety.

Sad Puppies IV will be in play 2016.  That's already happening.  They can shut us out if and only if they openly publish their own slate.  A whisper campaign won't work anymore.

Their OUTSIDER SJW will be demanding a say in who wins because that is in the nature of SJWs. That choice will be even worse than whatever the Neilson-Haydens will come up with of their own accord.

Under those circumstances winning a Hugo becomes completely merit-less.  The award will die in two years.

Scenario 2. Mixed results; No Award wins for some things and Sad Puppies wins for others.  This assumes the SJWs pulled this off with strictly in house talent.  No outside players involve themselves.

The Anti-Puppies will not be happy with this result at all.  It doesn’t matter who goes home with the Rocket.

Result: As in Scenario 1. Great House Neilson-Harkonnen will attempt to use what they believe to be our tactics against us. They will try to recruit outside help. And they will have to publish their own slate next year.

It will be openly political now. It will also be a problem if Patrick is still employed by TOR.  What order does he put his entries in?  Naturally TOR books will be favored as was before.  But now it will be favored openly. instead of being the result of a whispering campaign.

How cool is Harper-Collins  going to be with that?

By 2017 the Sad Puppies controls the award due to competing slates from the major publishers.

Scenario 3. Sad Puppies wins big but No Award is present on all of the final tallies.

Result; pretty much the same as Scenario 2 but with a lot more screaming and crying.

I suspect this is the most likely scenario.

Scenario 4.  The Enpuppying.  Puppies both Sad and Rabid run the table at WorldCon.  Vox Day wins for best editor Long Form.  No Award doesn’t appear on the final tally for anything.

In this unlikely scenario expect the SJWs to walk out of WorldCon and not participate in 2017  The Hugos and Worldcon will be abandoned due to their non-combative nature, they simply won’t want to fight a  at all.  Clearly the Koch brothers bought the Hugos and hired Vox Day to run it for them because he is jealous of John Scalzi’s success.  There is no point in fighting when you are this out gunned.  They will set up their own juried award at another convention.

In all cases.  The Hugo will never be able to go back to business as usual.


Craig said...

Suppose it's a mixture.

A non-Puppy candidate wins Best Novel; another (say, novella) gets No Awarded; the Puppies take novelette, short story and related work. The rest of the down-ticket is similarly split.

Isn't this a different scenario than any of yours?

Cataline Sergius said...

It's about the same as Scenario 2 in terms of result.

Personally I suspect, now that Jim Butcher is actually on the ballot, he'll probably win for best novel. Baroness Harkonnen is more feared than loved. And right now she's demanding people take sides when she is looking weak.

But Novella could go no award easily. Unlike Butcher, there is no outstanding sentiment that Wright or Kratman is over due for a Hugo.

Max Knott said...

I think you covered the basic possibilities pretty well but you did not consider the Rules changes that are almost certain to be made.

The wise move would be to change nothing and simply encourage more slates. But there are some people who simply will have to *do* something.

I am expecting an ugly fight. One big group wants no slates at all. A slightly smaller but more vocal one want Rules.

Ralph Hyatt said...

There will be an attempt to change the rules to vet the nominees. The Hugos process was a juried process, in fact. Now an attempt will be made to "fix" the Hugos by making the jury process official.

Gordon said...

I'm no expert on WorldCon, but isn't there an early-morning business session sometime during the con wherein rules are changed and made? GRRM wrote a bit about having to get up early to attend it.

If I were the SJWs, I'd run a quiet campaign to pack that meeting, and then propose and vote in changes to make SPIV impossible.

Should Puppyfolk and dreadilk be making plans to be at the business meeting?

Cataline Sergius said...

There is zero doubt in my mind that they will successfully change the rules to shut us out.

In doing so, they will destroy the myth of the Hugo Awards as being an all inclusive, pan fandom award. They can't win that fight without losing all the prestige that the Hugo has acquired.

A few of them know that. Those are the ones that are really, really mad.

Also the new rules can't take effect until 2017, so there is still a lot of fun to be had.

After 2017 we will probably setup our own awards, probably at LibertyCon. But that last is just a guess.