Saturday, February 21, 2015

Schrodinger's War: Part 2 What ISIS Is and Is Not

Forgive Cataline for quoting Cataline:

“Is it a war?  Is it not a war?  Does it have an objective?  It appears to have several anti-objectives, all sorts of things it's not supposed to accomplish.

From Belmont Club  The punditry struggled to find something enlightening to say about president Obama’s strategy to degrade … defeat … inconvenience … manage ISIS — whatever you want to call it — because there was almost nothing to hold on to. It remains a kind of mystery object, like the 2001 monolith, a presence sitting in the room.

Obama's Nuanced War, will however have four parts if no real purpose.

Increased Air-Strikes.

Support to Allied Forces on the Ground

Counter Terrorism

Humanitarian Assistance.

This plan contains of course the usual desperate need to lead from behind.  The goal is to get someone else to do the boots on the ground stuff.

The problem being no one wants to work with Obama at this point.

I'm here for you...
...I guess

Nothing has changed about any of this.  Except that the Obama Administration has now, (post election) sunken into full Hermit Kingdom mode.

The annoying thing about the ISIS or as I shall be referring to it from this point on, the Caliphate, is that unlike Al Qaeda which is a genuine Fourth Generation warfare polity.  The Caliphate is actually a First Generation warfare kingdom.  By that I mean literally a kingdom with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as it’s absolute temporal and spiritual ruler.  It would in fact be very easy to defeat.

The Atlantic recently published a piece called. What ISIS really is.  This article has been greeted with completely predictable hysterical denouncement from the usual ethno-masochists at Salon and Think Progress.  So it’s pedigree is quite excellent.   No need to link to them, nothing of interest to be found, unless you are really into SWPL Whitesplaining.  It’s the usual progressive unpleasantly surprised word salad.  They thought that they had Atlantic better house trained then that.  

Graeme Wood lost them at the words, “The reality is that the Islamic State is Islamic. Very Islamic".  Double plus ungood, bad think, thought crime. The Ministry of Truth has declared the Caliphate to be un-Islamic.  Progressive’s have labored long and hard in the liberal word mines to grant Muslims that most sacred of all status markers, Victimhood.  They had to go back all the way to that barbarian völkerwanderung called the First Crusade to do it but they did it. However,that was long trip to make, it left them tired and cranky.  Naturally they don’t want to have to go there again.

The Atlantic article is well researched and well thought out and there isn't the slightest hint contained therein, that ISIS will disband if only presented with a really good job fair.

The truth is that the Caliphate is at once a cult, political movement and nation state (kingdom really).  

There were several factors that brought Islamist Salafism to life.The failure of Marxism being chief among them.  

Arab leaders of the forties and fifties were all educated in British and French schools.  All of them were trained to be leaders  in the 1920s and 1930s, by an imperial system that was about to collapse.  They were marinated in Marxist ideology and believed in it wholeheartedly. After all the Brits and the French did too. However Arab culture is the lowest trust culture there is on Earth. Me against my brother, Me and my brother against my cousin.  Me and my cousin against the world.   And Marxism is easily adapted to high speed theft on a brobdingnagian scale.  Entire economies vanished into a few families swiss bank accounts. Give the Arabs this much credit, unlike westerners they can recognize failure when they see it.  Democracy had failed them. Socialism completely failed them.  Western Civilization had absolutely failed them.  

They had nowhere to turn but Allah.

Thus was created an inexhaustible thirst for a redeeming king.  A Caliph.

Osama bin Ladin was the first to make a tentative move in that direction but Al Qaeda has always had one foot firmly planted in the temporal world. It didn't answer the spiritual call. It didn't satisfy the need.

Power is supported by three pillars.  Tradition, law and charisma.  

The charisma of Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is self evident.  He is like Nassar or Obama come to that, a product of the crowd.  The need for a man on horse back for the Islamists was there.  Bin Laden was in christian terms; Caliph al-Baghdadi’s John the Baptist.  A man who was destined to be a martyred voice crying in the wilderness but never the Messiah himself.  Respected by the Caliphate but in truth its easier for them now that he is gone.  AQs current head Zawahri has zero charisma.

God, when will the prunes kick in?

Caliph al-Baghdadi has charisma to spare.  And an Islamic leader must have charisma as well as a strong command of rhetoric.


“To be the caliph, one must meet conditions outlined in Sunni law—being a Muslim adult man of Quraysh  descent (which Bin Laden was NOT); exhibiting moral probity and physical and mental integrity; and having ’amr, or authority. This last criterion, Cerantonio said, is the hardest to fulfill, and requires that the caliph have territory in which he can enforce Islamic law. Baghdadi’s Islamic State achieved that long before June 29, Cerantonio said, and as soon as it did, a Western convert within the group’s ranks—Cerantonio described him as “something of a leader”—began murmuring about the religious obligation to declare a caliphate. He and others spoke quietly to those in power and told them that further delay would be sinful.

Cerantonio said a faction arose that was prepared to make war on Baghdadi’s group if it delayed any further. They prepared a letter to various powerful members of ISIS, airing their displeasure at the failure to appoint a caliph, but were pacified by Adnani, the spokesman, who let them in on a secret—that a caliphate had already been declared, long before the public announcement. They had their legitimate caliph, and at that point there was only one option. “If he’s legitimate,” Cerantonio said, “you must give him the baya’a.”

The baya’a is basically an oath of fealty.  But once given you must endeavor to travel to the Caliph’s territory and fight for him.  Hence the big disagreement between Al Qaeda and the Caliphate.

This also brings us to the last pillar; Tradition.   The last polity that claimed to be a caliphate was the Osmanoğlu dynasty that ruled the Ottoman empire. Even in it’s heyday, it was viewed as false caliphate.  Certainly by1920, no one took it seriously as such.  

The Caliphate’s public barbarism is part of coordinated campaign to publicly portray itself to the Muslim world as being in accordance with “Prophetic Methodology. All of it’s decisions are made in harmony with it.  The Caliphate held quite a big conclave when discussing the fate of Yzid women and children.  It was a very serious matter for them.

“In October, Dabiq, the magazine of the Islamic State, published “The Revival of Slavery Before the Hour,” an article that took up the question of whether Yazidis (the members of an ancient Kurdish sect that borrows elements of Islam, and had come under attack from Islamic State forces in northern Iraq) are lapsed Muslims, and therefore marked for death, or merely pagans and therefore fair game for enslavement. A study group of Islamic State scholars had convened, on government orders, to resolve this issue.

Yazidi women and children [are to be] divided according to the Shariah amongst the fighters of the Islamic State who participated in the Sinjar operations [in northern Iraq] … Enslaving the families of the kuffar [infidels] and taking their women as concubines is a firmly established aspect of the Shariah that if one were to deny or mock, he would be denying or mocking the verses of the Koran and the narrations of the Prophet … and thereby apostatizing from Islam.

The point is, that this isn't random sadism.  They are committing these war crimes in the name of pious fidelity to the earliest teachings of Islam.

The question that no Progressive can even begin to let themselves think about is, why are they doing it?

That answer is rather simple.  The Caliphate is the epicenter of an apocalyptic cult.

The Islamic State has attached great importance to the Syrian city of Dabiq, near Aleppo. It named its propaganda magazine after the town, and celebrated madly when (at great cost) it conquered Dabiq’s strategically unimportant plains. It is here, the Prophet reportedly said, that the armies of Rome will set up their camp. The armies of Islam will meet them, and Dabiq will be Rome’s Waterloo or its Antietam...

...  Now that it has taken Dabiq, the Islamic State awaits the arrival of an enemy army there, whose defeat will initiate the countdown to the apocalypse.”

That my friends it where America comes in.  You see the Caliphate is supposed to defeat the armies of Rome.  This next bit is complicated so bear with me.

The Salafist version of the apocalypse goes something like this.  The armies of the Caliph defeats the armies Rome on the Plains of Dabiq.  The Caliphate then proceeds to sweep all before them until in Eastern Iran a (sort of) Anti-Christ arises; the Dajjal.  The Dajjal will hammer the Caliphate until there are only 5,000 of the faithful remaining hold up in Jerusalem.  Just as the Dajjal is about to destroy them, Jesus Christ will return to Earth and spear him.

I'm supposed to do what now?

Why the Prince of Peace and not Mohammed, you ask?  Well you better not ask because the answer upsets Muslims.  This version of the End of Days predates Islam by quite a bit.  Islam itself most likely started as just another Gnostic Christian heresy.  It’s all there when you look at it.  The rejection of the divinity of Christ. Rejection of the Resurrection.  Rejection of the Trinity.  All of these are explicitly rejected by both Gnostic doctrine  and the Koran.     The earliest known depiction of  Mohammed is a sixth century coin found in Palestine.  On one the side are the words the Prophet Mohammed on the other is a sketch of a man holding a cross.   Consequently it’s Christ who returns to Earth to slay the Dajjal.

As for the Dajjal arising in Eastern Iran. That one is easy, for Arabs "Rome" is the enemy forever in exile, Iran is the enemy forever in residence and that one goes waaaaay back before the division between Sunni and Shia Islam.

Back to the Armies of Rome.  Rome was largely out of business by the time Mohammed came along.  By the sixth century, when anyone was speaking of Rome they really meant Constantinople, seat of the Eastern Roman Empire and they were largely entering terminal decline themselves about then.  A big part of the reason the first Caliphates did so well in the field was that they were filling a power vacuum left by a retreating Byzantine Empire.  The Arabs were their local auxiliaries, trained and paid by the Eastern Roman Empire.  When the Byzantines gave up and went back to Constantinople, the Arabs made a logical career progression.

What all this means is that “Rome” is very much open to interpretation and always has been.  

Ave et salutant, dude!

Redesignating Rome as the United States of America was no big leap.  

We’re big on eagles, what more do you want?

The Caliphate is desperate for a conventional land war with the United States.  That’s the good news.

My next post will be covering the Caliphate and First Generation Warfare.

Schrodinger's War: Part 3 The Schrodinging


Ron said...

Very interesting. Especially this line:

"Just as the Dajjal is about to destroy them, Jesus Christ will return to Earth and spears him"

What. The. Fuck.

WildClaw said...

If we were to send any foreign ground force, how effective would it be? What percentage of locals support IS?

Cataline Sergius said...

If we were to send any foreign ground force, how effective would it be? What percentage of locals support IS?

Unknown. The polling process is at best problematic.

Hello frightened peasant! I am a perfect stranger. Do you support the Caliph (peace be upon him). BTW there is only one right answer.